Election Probability

Ok, I know I'm a geek. After all, my first degree was in Mathematics. Which both makes me trust and distrust statistics. I guess I trust them way more than intuition, but am well-aware of their limitations. I think this election cycle is far less predictable than usual making polling even more problematic. The primary causes for the polls increased level of unpredictability: (1) the increased voter turnout runs ramrod over previous models of who are "likely" voters causing the polling institutions to grasp at straws to define this, (2) the Bradley effect and (3) perhaps related to the Bradley effect, there is a reasonable theory that many undecided voters just don't want to admit that they're not voting for the black guy and will disproportionately break for McCain. The completely detached, logical side of me will be watching election night results for purely academic reasons while the other part of me is having a complete emotional breakdown.

Anyway, I came across the 538 website, which I've never read before. It definitely feeds that academic side of me. If interested, go to their site and look at the very interesting graphs and maps. I've pulled a couple of them out so that I can make comments.

1. This first one is obviously the result of simulations of election results. Compare how many read bars versus blue and how small those read bars are. Those red bars represent the likelihood of an Obama loss appear really small. Now for the bad news, simulations like this necessarily must make models imitating how voters think and behave. If you think polling in this election cycle is very difficult, making good simulations is impossible.

2. This second graph is presumably based on the same set of simulations as above and of course should not be trusted for the same reasons. But for fun, the findings are astounding.

• Chances the McCain will win popular vote: just 5.48%!
• In 2000 and 2004, Bush's path to the White House was to win Ohio and Florida. The chance that even if McCain can win both of these (he's currently trailing in both) that Obama will still win: 73.7%! Damn!

Timmy

Normally I have a very strict policy of not mentioning real people I meet on this blog by name, but... Well in actuality his name isn't Timmy, but anyway. Tonight was the high-heels race in nation's capitol. The Tuesday before each Halloween marks a race in high heels down DC's gay 17th street. It's always packed with people, gay and straight alike. It's more than just a drag race, it's a full out Halloween and drag fair.

Today we arrived about 1.5 hours before the race was scheduled to begin. Since this was the earliest we had ever arrived, I was actually pretty surprised by the number of people that were already lined up 1 and 1/2 hours before the race was set to begin. Oh yeah, did I mention that the high temperature for the day was an unseasonable 52 degrees? We side "hi" to the SW who volunteered as an event marshal and headed to JR's for pre-race drinks.

At JR's, we saw Timmy (not his real name). Timmy is a very cute 36 y/o that always talked to the BF during underwear night on Saturday at the GL. The last time the BF and I went to naked cocktails, I was surprised to see him there also. Honestly, he is quite the hottie. At the underwear parties he always talked to the BF and never to me. This night he said "hi" to the BF and the BF eventually introduced him to me... again. Conversation was interesting. We talked about many topics including the presidential elections. He's a conservative, but I won't hold it against too much him since I too have many conservatives leanings.

At some point during the evening he asked me if I kept a blog. Uh... ok. He then told me about things he remembered from the blog that of course I had forgotten that I had written about. Yes, my memory really is that bad. I remember the events of which I write, but not that I had written about them. Sometimes I actually forget the event itself. It's part of the reason I started the blog in the first place. Anyway... shock and surprise it really was this blog. Funny thing is that I've met quite a number of local people that have said that they've read my blog and this didn't bother me. I guess forgetting what I wrote does have it's privileges.

Anyway, after quite a good time with both a good conversationalist and a very cute guy, he said that I should write about him. I have a policy against writing anything that would definitively identify people except to themselves, but in this case... actually, I think I still managed to make him anonymous to all but himself and the BF pretty well.

Anyway, here's to you Timmy if you ever happen to read this. I enjoyed our time together together with you and the BF. Finally I've had the opportunity talk to you. I realize that I'm not your type and that's ok, but I think you're really attractive nonetheless. Here's to hoping it doesn't take 3 more months before you find someone to tickle.

Down

Recently I've had quite a few talks with both friends and acquaintances in which they stated that the were feeling depressed. This always hurts me to the core because I want everyone to be happy, most especially my friends. It awakens a natural instinct within me to treat it as a project to be delivered or a problem to be solved which I then quickly suppress. In the end, I rarely even offer advice because such advice is often counter-productive no matter how well intentioned it may be. In the end, it is they that must learn to overcome. All I can do is to be there for them.

Election YouTubes

The Vet Who Did Not Vet


Wassap 2008!

Ft. Lauderdale / Haulover Beach

Ft. Lauderdale / Haulover Beach
Originally uploaded by nudeindc2008

GNI

Naked Gathering
Originally uploaded by nudeindc2008

This picture at the GNI. I attended the sensual photoshoot where I then volunteered to be one of the models.

We're votin' for the n***er!

From a canvasser in Pennsylvania. Somehow I actually find this oddly reassuring...

So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n***er!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n***er."

I guess what I find reassuring is that for many people in this country, the importance of race-bias now falls below other interests such as the economy and the welfare of this country. This was not always the case and represents a momentous step forward.

The Coming Storm

"Let me just say categorically I'm proud of the people that come to our rallies." - John McCain during the final debate on October 16th (transcript).

Supports at a Palin campaign rally.

Chris Matthews Unhinged

I just watched Chris Matthews interview with Congressional representative Michelle Bachmann a few minutes ago (tivo'd). Actually, I'm less bothered with her craziness since I just kind of accept the fact that there are some crazy people out there in the world. What I found most interesting though is Chris's complete inability to conduct the interview with any modicum of competence. I know a lot of people dislike Chris, but I actually like him. He was just completely unprepared for what this lady had to say and frankly became unhinged.

Interestingly enough, Bachmann's crazy tirade was followed by Stephanie Cutter, a senior advisor of Obama's campaign. And what was her answer to Michelle's accusation that Obama was un-American? First, "Well what do you want me to say Chris?" Huh? Are you kidding me!? This was then followed by "I'm moving to Canada!"

Unbelievable!

In all fairness though I need to finish watching it. I was so taken with the first 16 minutes of the show that I had to write this before finishing it. Maybe everyone will redeem themselves as the show moves on.

Update: Ok, step back and take a deep breath. After the commercial, I've just watched Katrina Vanden Heuvel, editor of The Nation. She provided a superb and impassioned retort to the rantings of Rep Bachmann and was obviously speaking from the heart. She was then followed by Pat Buchanan. Pat said he agreed with everything she said except investigating the congress. And just for a little more political theater (because the show was so uneventful up til this point), Katrina's phone goes of loudly several times at which point she says, "Forgive me, I don't mean to do a Guiliani!"

So let's talk about Pat. He's about as radical as they come, but has moderated himself in recent years such that he's now only just a right-wing nut. Trust me, this is a huge improvement. But not this day. This day we saw the old Pat Buchanan. That endearing separatist, neo-fascist that we had become so accustomed to in years past. For the record, I have to credit Pat to introducing me to a new term today... afro-racism. Who knew such a term existed although I find it somewhat ironic that he's using the term.

At the end of the segment, Chris said "Pat you gotta be careful. Your instincts are coming back." Obviously he felt the same way about Pat's performance as I did.

Electoral Map

This CNN article now puts a full 277 electoral votes in the Obama column based on the latest polling. Basically that means if every single one of the close races went for McCain, according to recent polls, Obama would still win. Virginia was the most recent state that pushed Obama past the critical 270 mark according to CNN analysts.

As I write this, the debates are exactly 1 hour and 13 minutes away. This is McCain's last chance to have a major impact on the election outcome. Could he still win? Of course, but it would almost certainly have to be done by some outside, yet unforeseen event unless he can land a hail-Mary pass tonight. Things are not looking good for him, but fortunately, very good for the country.

As for race relations in an Obama presidency.... I'm an optimist. I realize that this will bring out the craziest kooks and the most bold-faced racists. I realize that people will parse every action and declare how bad he is. But fortunately, Obama is nothing if not competent. And because of this I am confident that this will be limited to just a fringe and the country at large will greatly benefit both from his thoughtful and insightful leadership as well as the racial progress that he represents.

And the best part of all.... I'd happily vote for him if he was white... or Asian-American... or Latino-American or any other nationality. I'd vote for him anyway because his insight, judgement, tone, hope and vision are exactly what this country needs. And that makes him the best choice to be the President of these United States.

Sarah the Loon

just because you can see the moon
doesn't mean me an astronaut you loon

Pictures

Fear

Politically I tend to be centrist. I fundamentally do not believe that Government is good at solving problems. Now I have nothing against governments per se, but I have a lifetime of history watching the ineffectiveness and bureaucracy of large organizations. The US Government just happens to be the largest bureaucracy in the history of the planet.

The problem is, as an organization grows it becomes less obvious how an individual worker/participant's actions contributes to the organization's objectives. It also becomes less obvious how achieving the organization's objectives benefit the individual participant. For example, if you are the only sales person for a company, you understand exactly how your poor performance will kill the company. However, if you are part of a 1000-person sales team, the effects of slacking off a little appear diluted, even if the collective slacking off of the whole team would harm the company just the same.

I say all of this because as much as I want the Democrats to CRUSH the Republicans this election cycle, there is a little, soft voice in the back of my head that reminds me that I should fear whenever any party gains full control of Government. So... is it possible to both crush the Republicans but keep just enough around the keep the Dems honest?

Strictly Porn

What follows is an experience that I wrote about a couple of weeks ago. I didn't publish because it conveys nothing of substance. Nonetheless, it actually did carry meaning for me as it was a special moment that I will always remember even though I'm not nearly good enough with words for that to come through. (Damn! just read it again and it sounds like cheap chic lit. Oh well) Anyway...

After the naked cocktail party this past Saturday, Tommy and his partner invited us and a few others over his house. When we arrived, there were already 5 others there including Tommy and his boyfriend JB. We had only just met Tommy and JB earlier this year. Both are around thirty years old, in good shape and extremely sexy. Sometimes when I see beautiful people I'll actually avoid them out of nervousness or fear. Most people wouldn't think that of me, but it's true. I would see them several times more before actually meeting.

When we arrived this day, everyone was already naked, so the BF and I shed our clothes as well. As you might expect, things turned sexual rather quickly. Tommy sat on a high chair facing us as some of us sat on the couch and began light play. After while I went over to the high chair where Tommy was and started to lick his perfectly, pink hole. I stood up and entered him slowly, watching the expression on his face the whole time. I went very slowly and was hard as a rock. As I increased my pace, I leaned over and kissed him ever so softly, savoring the sweet taste of his lips as I continued to slide in and out. It wasn't long before he uttered that he was ready to cum. I was surprised since neither of us had touched his dick in a while. I watched as he spurt wave after wave over his stomach with my dick still buried inside him.

Later, still feeling horny, I laid back on the couch jerking off. He was back on the chair again. He stared at me as I continued my work and didn't look away. With one leg up, he alternated playing with his cock and fingering his hole. It drove me wild to see him sliding his fingers in and out like that. I came like a fountain watching him.

Later as he lay on the couch, I went to say goodbye. He wrapped his legs around me and pulled me on top of him. It was clear that he wanted to go another round, but sadly we had an appointment to pick up others in just a half hour and had to leave.

Candidates as Trains

The South

I came across this very cool map tool that shows how each state voted in the presidential elections for every election since George Washington. What stood out to me more than anything was how immediate and complete was the change in the voting patterns of the bible belt from Democrat to Republican in 1964. Obviously this was a direct result of the civil rights era.

Tribute to Robin

Ok, there is no rational reason on earth why Robin (from Batman and...) should have popped into my head while at work today, but he did. Since this is the first time I thought of him in many, many years, I took a little time to do some 2008 research on my childhood facination. This post is just remembering my crush of yesteryear.

Main Street vs Wall Street

There's been a lot of talk lately by both the media and politicians regarding how the proposed bailout only helps wall street and not main street. There is a lot of worthwhile debate to be had on the bailout, but this just isn't one of them!

Let me try to paint a picture. I own my home and have positioned myself to be able to withstand the current crisis. But how much do I really own my home? After all, about 60 to 70% of it is still mortgaged, so doesn't the bank own more of my home than I do? Well... no. You see they are just investing the money given to them by their depositors, that is, ordinary folks with checking and savings accounts at their bank. So then all of the bank holders in the country (or at least those having an account at my bank) own a piece of my home (kind of).

Now banks typically sell their mortgages on the secondary markets to Fannie/Freddie who when bundle them into mutual fund -like packages and sell on wall street. Shares of these bundles are then purchased by various money funds including money markets, mutual funds, 401k funds, pension funds, etc.

The wheels that turn America operate on credit. I know credit gets a bad name such as running up credit card debt beyond what you can pay, but credit is also used constructively to fuel the economy.

For example, let's say I have a small business and just got a new order or contract to perform some work. I'll get paid at the end of the contract or some period after the end of each month, but I must hire people to do the work today. These employees want their check on Friday and do not want to hear about how invoices are paid two months in arrears. Where do businesses find the money to cover this short-term cash flow issue, through bank loans. The same principle applies to small and large businesses alike.

So what happens when the markets are scared shitless and won't lend money? Business can't hire even though they have guaranteed work and income. Prosperous businesses can't expand to meet increasing demand. As a result, unemployment increases and average Americans can't find a job. This starts a vicious cycle because this further leads to a lower demand for products and services because (1) people aren't buying because more and more of them are unemployed and (2) businesses aren't buying because they can't get the funds for the initial investment. Of course this leads to further slowdown and even higher unemployment.

Is the Paulson plan the right plan? I don't know. I've certainly have been hearing other alternatives that sound reasonable to me, but I'm not an economist. All I have to say is just don't tell me that this is just a Wall Street problem as our country goes over the precipice toward a 1930s style depression.